Probabilistic Dispatch Assessment.
What does each half hour really cost once the grid’s limits apply?
PDA runs a security-constrained dispatch for a full year, half hour by half hour, within thermal, voltage and N-1 limits. When a circuit overloads it redispatches straight away, with batteries, electrolysers and interconnectors in the same solve.
Why it matters nowOn saturated networks, curtailment is no longer occasional. A project's value depends on how it actually runs once the grid binds, not on its nameplate. PDA shows how it runs, half hour by half hour.
How PDA works.
- 01
SCED solver
The cheapest generation mix each half hour, within thermal, voltage and N-1 limits.
- 02
PTDF redispatch
Runs as soon as a circuit overloads: the cheapest change in output, without cutting demand.
- 03
Sector coupling
BESS, hydrogen electrolysers and demand-side response co-dispatched in the same solve.
- 04
Interconnector co-opt
Cross-border flows optimised alongside domestic generation across all scenarios.
The generation stack, resolved every half hour.
A representative week of security-constrained dispatch. When a monitored circuit binds, SCED picks the cheapest redispatch over involuntary load shedding, every time.
Figures from an example run on a test network.
SCED chooses redispatch over load shedding every time, and the slack variables show where new transmission, flexibility or interconnection pays back fastest.