PCA Pillar 02 · Curtailment & Congestion

Probabilistic Capacity Assessment.

Where should the next electrolyser, BESS or demand block actually sit?

PCA sweeps every candidate zone across a multi-year horizon, optimises capacity by zone, and ranks the locational value of added capacity — three modes, one ranked answer.

Alternating locationsCapacity allocationZonal locational signalsMulti-year horizon
14Zones evaluated
GW-scaleCapacity placed
£1.4 bnCost saved · vs worst
Zone 8 · 1Top siting zones
The signature output

Site it where it earns its capital back.

Relative redispatch cost for a large new asset placed in each candidate zone. The lowest-cost zones are the only places it pays back. Hover any zone.

Redispatch cost by candidate siting zone · multi-year · large new load
All three modes converge on the same answer — only the top zones let an asset earn its capital back through redispatch savings.Hover a zone bar for detail
Inside the engine

Three modes, one ranked answer.

01

Alternating locations

Bundle a candidate asset, shift it through every zone, score by redispatch delta.

02

Capacity allocation

A single MILP places optimal capacity across zones simultaneously.

03

Zonal shadow price

The dual of the dispatch — £ per extra MW added in each zone.

04

Ranked siting

The three views converge on a defensible, ranked siting recommendation.

The read

All three modes converge on the same answer — only a handful of zones let an electrolyser earn its capital back. Everywhere else destroys value.