PEAPillar 02 · Costs & Revenues

Probabilistic Energy-storage Assessment.

Make every battery hour earn — without spending its calendar life.

A multi-period state-of-charge optimiser that value-stacks energy arbitrage with frequency response and balancing-mechanism revenue across all simulated hours — while respecting round-trip efficiency and degradation.

Arbitrage · price-followingFrequency responseBalancing mechanismRenewables firming

Why it matters now Storage is scaling fast — the global battery market is set to roughly double by 2030 and co-located solar-plus-storage is becoming the default — but a battery only earns its keep if it's sized and operated against the real congestion and price signals at its node. Oversize it and capital sits idle; undersize it and value is left on the table. PEA finds the size and the operating strategy that pay back.

Industry context, 2025 — IEA, Ember, market forecasts and a 2025 survey of 100+ energy professionals.

£146 /kW·yrAnnual revenue
86 %Round-trip efficiency
340 /yrEquivalent cycles
+135 %Uplift vs arbitrage-only
The signature output

Charge cheap, discharge into the peaks.

A representative day of optimised dispatch — state of charge following the spot price, with charging and discharging windows shaded.

Daily dispatch · SoC vs spot price · 100 MW / 200 MWh BESS
Value-stacking lifts revenue +135% over price-arbitrage alone — but only if degradation is priced in. PEA solves both simultaneously.
Inside the engine

One optimiser, every revenue stream.

01

Multi-period SoC

A MILP over half-hour settlement co-solves arbitrage, frequency-response availability and balancing bids.

02

Stochastic scenarios

All simulated hours of price and frequency — Parquet-backed for sub-minute access.

03

Degradation-aware

Round-trip efficiency and cycle/calendar ageing priced into every dispatch decision.

04

Value-stack output

A bankable revenue stack and an end-of-life trajectory the lender can underwrite.

The read

Value-stacking lifts revenue +135% over arbitrage alone — and PEA proves it without quietly burning the asset's calendar life.

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