PBA Pillar 02 · Curtailment & Congestion

Probabilistic Boundary Assessment.

The maximum megawatts you can push across each boundary — under every credible N-1.

PBA walks transfer up until the first contingency binds, with quad-boosters and HVDCs optimally re-dispatched at every step. The output is a defensible, industry-standard transfer capability per boundary.

Boundary & monitored circuitsStep transfer upOptimise QB · HVDCCapability at first binding N-1
8Boundaries assessed
+18%Avg uplift · QB+SW+HVDC
17.4 GWMax transfer · Boundary A
Boundary DBinding bottleneck
The signature output

Transfer capability — base vs asset-optimised.

Each boundary's secure transfer limit, before and after optimal dispatch of quad-boosters and HVDCs. Hover a bar for the binding detail.

Boundary transfer capability · monitored N-1 · 2030 horizon
Boundary D is the bottleneck — asset optimisation lifts capability but still misses the planning target. PBA hands the gap (in MW) the next reinforcement must close.Hover a boundary bar for detail
Inside the engine

How a defensible transfer figure is built.

01

Boundary definition

Zone-to-zone map, monitored circuits and the monitored contingency set per boundary.

02

Step transfer up

Transfer is walked up incrementally until the first credible N-1 contingency binds.

03

Asset optimisation

Nearby quad-boosters and HVDC set-points are optimally re-dispatched at every step.

04

Capability output

The secure capability at first binding — base and optimised — with the binding contingency tagged.

The read

Boundary D is the bottleneck — optimisation lifts it +21% but it still misses the planning target. PBA quantifies exactly the gap the next reinforcement, HVDC bootstrap or storage must close.